We are well into conference play, and players are beginning to separate themselves into clearer tiers. AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, Kingston Flemings and Caleb Wilson look like the clear five best prospects in this class, but there is still time for things to change.

Draft order and lottery courtesy of http://www.tankathon.com.

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It has been a tough go of things in Memphis. The Ja Morant/Jaren Jackson Jr. duo seems to have run its course. Some lottery luck could usher in a new era for the Grizzlies. AJ Dybantsa has had a whirlwind of a week, scoring 43 points against Utah, and following that up with a 6-24 shooting performance against Arizona. He remains my top prospect, no matter what team winds up with the first pick. His ability to score from all three levels, better than expected shooting and defensive effort makes him the ideal player to build around in today’s NBA, especially on the offensive end. Finding players who can generate their own offense the way Dybantsa can is rare.

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It has been yet another season to forget in Washington, but at least the trio of Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson and Kyshawn George looks like something the team can build around. Throw in a healthy Trae Young, and a potential All Star with a top three pick here, and the Wizards could finally enter the next stage of its rebuild. While I have Darryn Peterson ranked slightly ahead of Cameron Boozer, Boozer would fit better with this current roster construction. Boozer may not be big enough to play center, and will always struggle defensively because of a lack of strength and explosiveness, but both of those issues would be covered up a bit playing next to Sarr in the Washington front court. I do not doubt his offensive ability, however, and could see a Kevin Love-like 20/10 player in his prime.

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Going the expensive veteran route has not worked out for Sacramento, and they could be back to square one next year. Perhaps no team in the NBA needs a back court overhaul as much as the Kings, so adding a dynamic lead guard like Darryn Peterson would be a tremendous get. Peterson has struggled all year long to stay on the court, but when he has played, he has displayed the type of bucket getting chops that has scouts so excited. He can break a defense down off the dribble, and really shoot it, making over 42% of his three point shots. Despite his health issues, he is very much in play for the top overall pick. His offensive game is tailor made for the NBA.

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The Jazz will lose this pick if it falls out of the top 8, and are hell bent on finally landing a franchise player, so expect some heavy tanking the rest of the way. This pick would come down to Kingston Flemings and Caleb Wilson. Both are great prospects, but Flemings recent 42 point scoring explosion against Texas Tech, and his true point guard ability, may give him the edge. Keyonte George has been a great scorer in Utah, and adding Flemings as his back court running mate could make the Jazz must watch basketball. Flemings is not the biggest, but he is strong enough, can shoot and score at a high level, and is a true facilitator on offense. He is, by far, the best point guard in this class.

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The worst teams are simply hoping to land in the top five of this draft. While it has been a season to forget in Indianapolis, landing here in the lottery would ease the pain a bit. Caleb Wilson may be the fifth pick here, but he would be top two or three most other years. While he may not be able to create his own offense like the players picked above him, he is very active on the glass and can score off of put backs, and even jump shots. He is a double double machine and quite active on defense. He may not be big enough to play center full time, but he should have no problem carving out a starting spot next to Pascal Siakam for the Pacers.

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While this is still good value considering what Atlanta gave up, they would still be disappointed if the Pelicans pick fell out of the top five. The draft opens up in a big way here, with a lot more questions than answers. The Hawks traded Trae Young. While Nickiel Alexander-Walker can play point guard, he may be more suited as a first guard off the bench behind an established starter. Darius Acuff Jr. continues to impress. After an impressive 31 point performance against LSU, his scoring average sits at over 20 points per game. Hie shooting splits are great, and he has a 3:1 assist to turnover ratio. He is a bit on the small size, but has the strength to hold his own on defense. John Calipari guards often fare better in the NBA than college, so to see Acuff Jr. excel this early should excite scouts.

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Brooklyn is looking to trade Michael Porter Jr. and Cam Thomas in hopes of losing enough games to land in the top five of this draft. That does not happen here, and now, they need scoring punch. It is almost impossible to believe that a lot of publications did not have Keaton Wagler as a top 150 ranked prospect. He has obliterated those rankings, and makes the case to be the best non-top five freshman in this class. He has been a great shooter and distributor all season, but announced his lottery intentions with a 46 point performance against Purdue, perhaps the best team in the country. I have had him in the 20’s in my mocks for a while, but it is time I move him way, way up. He does everything you want an NBA guard to do.

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Seeing a soon-to-be 23 year old drafted in the top ten used to be unheard of, but teams are less and less scared to draft upperclassmen higher than previous years. The Hornets are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA, but they lack glue players and defensive stoppers. Yaxel Lendeborg is a super-charged role player that does everything pretty well. On offense, he can score from down low or stretch the defense. He can rebound, block shots and play the passing lanes. Charlotte has the offense to make a playoff push next year, and adding a player like Lendeborg could push them over the top.

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It has been a season to forget in Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo cannot stay healthy, and ESPN cannot overcome its absolute obsession with writing trade articles. I doubt anything will happen until the off-season, and the Bucks could choose to shut down Antetokounmpo, and hope for some lottery luck. While Mikel Brown Jr. has struggled with injuries and offensive consistency, he could be a great addition to this current roster. He has Jamal Murray-like ability as a confident shooter and scorer, and could play either guard spot, especially next to a ball dominant superstar like Antetokounmpo. Even with his struggles to shoot with accuracy, Brown Jr. has still shown plenty of offensive ability, and still remains a lottery pick.

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Even though rookie phenom Cooper Flagg can play a point forward role offensively on occasion, adding a dynamic scoring guard to take some of the pressure off him should be priority number one for Dallas. Fortunately, this draft is flush with combo scoring guards. Labaron Philon Jr. was a fringe first rounder as a freshman, but has improved his game in every way as an Alabama sophomore. He has scored with consistency, shot better and improved his point guard skills. He may not be the best athlete or defender, but could give Flagg a 20 point per night running mate.

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The Thunder are the only team that can have two picks in the last two years not play a single minute in the NBA, and not be effected at all. Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber remain out for the foreseeable future. The Thunder will probably go best player available here once again. Braylon Mullins is the type of shooter with length that fits on any team. He is a great spot up three point threat and could be, at the least, a passable defender. Oklahoma City will have decisions to make when it comes to their bench players, and Mullins could fill an easy role there.

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The Spurs are not quite Oklahoma City in terms of assets, but are another championship contender who may have a lottery pick. San Antonio should look to shore up its big man depth here. Hannes Steinbach could be a solid Kelly Olynyk replacement for San Antonio. While he is not much of an athlete or defender, he can shoot the ball and is quite active on the glass. At some point in the draft, you focus on what a player can do, and Steinbach has a game that is easy to define, and could be a very solid backup big man on a playoff team.

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Following a slow start, Portland is making a real playoff push. It is hard to believe they landed Deni Advija for a single draft pick. He should be the teams first All Star in quite a while. While it has been a big struggle for Nate Ament at times, I am not ready to write him off as a lottery pick yet. His offense is trending upwards, as he has scored between 17 and 29 points his past four games. His calling card will be shooting, and that often takes a bit to get going for players. He is active on the boards and defensively, so there is still a lot to work with here, it will just take more time than people may have thought.

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The Bulls are once again running the treadmill as a .500 team that lacks a clear direction, so giving them the best player available is the safest bet. Following a slow start, Brayden Burries has played better and better. Arizona is undefeated, ranked #1 overall, and Burries just out-dueled AJ Dybantsa, scoring 29 points in a win over BYU. Burries is one of the better combo guards in this class. He can shoot, get to the rim and is a pest on defense. He has some Desmond Bane to his game, and could be an ideal two guard next to Josh Giddey in Chicago.

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This is the first of many first round picks that are coming the Grizzlies way, via the Desmond Bane to Orlando trade. Koa Peat is a tough player to figure out. He is a big reason why Arizona is undefeated on the season. He is strong, plays bigger than his size and is a load down low. How much of that will translate to the NBA is the question. He is a bit undersized for power forward, but does not have the jump shot to keep defenses honest, at least right now. He has drawn Aaron Gordon comparisons, and he may have to develop his shot, like Gordon has, to stick around as a starter. At this point in the draft, for a team with an additional first round pick, this is an easy gamble worth taking.

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Miami has struggled to adjust to life without Jimmy Butler. “Heat Culture” can only take you so far. Eventually, a lack of talent will rear its ugly head. No one drafted here will make a huge difference, but Miami can still find a bench contributor. Tounde Yessoufou’s counting stats look fine, but a peek under the hood shows a player who has struggled to both shoot and get to the rim with consistency. He may need to make his living as a pesky defender who scores on the fast break and put backs, like a Christian Braun, but at some point, the potential rewards outweigh the risks.

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The Thunder will have decisions to make with Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams. Even when Thomas Sorber returns, Oklahoma City may want to develop a young, defensive minded center. Malachi Moreno has played a key role for the veteran led Kentucky Wildcats. He does the dirty work on the boards and defensively, and has shown some nice post moves on offense. He may never be a real offensive threat, but should carve out a solid role as a Hartenstein-like starting big man.

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The Warriors are going to try to contend as long as Stephen Curry is around, but, with the most recent Jimmy Butler injury, the future is as unclear as ever. Chris Cenac Jr. is proof that it often takes big men longer to develop. To his credit, he has managed to stay in Houston’s starting lineup, thanks to his ability to knock down some jump shots and hustle on the boards. He has the ability to be a Nic Claxton-like big man with a some three point range, but it will take time.

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The Cavaliers are finally starting to play some inspired ball, so Atlanta may not have a second top 20 pick after all. Even if this pick lands in the 20’s, the Hawks will be in good position to draft some much needed front court depth. While Patrick Ngongba II’s numbers do not jump off the page, he is a favorite amongst the analytics crowd. He is a good “garbage type” scorer, takes good care of the ball and can play passable defense. He will not wow anybody, but should become a very solid backup center with starting potential.

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The Suns are playing some great basketball, once again showing that the deep team over star collecting approach is usually the way to go. Charlotte has another first round pick here to continue to fill out its roster with, and they choose to double up with “old men” by drafting Bennett Stirtz. He would be yet another good shooter to throw in there, and can coexist behind, or next to, LaMelo Ball. Stirtz is an underrated athlete, a great shooter and can lead an offense. He may not be a starter in the NBA, but could join Ryan Kalkbrenner and Sion James as solid, experienced rookie/second year players in Charlotte.

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The Timberwolves have a very solid starting five, but the bench leaves a bit to be desired. Thomas Haugh is a 22 year old junior, but has a nice all around game that would help any playoff bench. He can score, shoot and rebound, and chip in defensively. Nothing special, but should provide 20 quality minutes off the bench per game.

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New York is, once again, a top heavy roster. Its recent first round picks have not made much of a dent at the NBA level. Jayden Quaintance was thought of as a possible lottery pick after his freshman season at Arizona State, but was too young to declare for the draft. He briefly made his return for Kentucky before suffering another injury. A lot of mock drafts still have him in their top ten, but I think this is a better spot for him. While he is an NBA caliber defender and rebounder, his offense has a long way to go, and his injury issues are costing him valuable reps to improve that side of his game. He should still be a first round pick, but I just do not see a lottery pick right now.

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Toronto may not have a superstar on its roster (Scottie Barnes is almost there), but have a deep starting five, and, unlike most of the East, have stayed healthy all year. The bench is led by rookie Collin Murray-Boyles, and not a lot else. With most of the top foreign players playing college this year, Karim Lopez is the best true international prospect in this class. He is a talented scorer, but his game could struggle to translate to the NBA. He is not a great shooter or athlete, and may never be much of a defender, but his offensive potential is worth it, at this point in the draft.

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The fact that the Lakers are nine games over .500 with such a flawed roster is actually somewhat impressive. This team lacks size and shooting, and Henri Veesaar could help out both areas. Obviously, you are not expecting much from a player drafted in the 20’s, but Veesaar is a good scorer with stretch ability on offense. He can also rebound and block the occasional shot. Not a high upside pick, but he has starting potential.

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The Celtics have a guard heavy roster, and should look to add cheap front court depth with this selection. It has taken quite a while, but Aday Mara is finally starting to develop as a legitimate NBA prospect. He will never be a shooter or much of a scorer, but he is athletic, has great size and has worked his way into a solid rebounder and shot blocker. Maybe never a starter, but a quality backup, at the least.

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I seriously doubt that the Thunder will have the money and roster space for three rookies next year, so this is simply a best player available situation. Cameron Carr has come out of nowhere as one of the best scorers in the country this year. While Baylor has struggled during Big 12 play, Carr has mostly kept pace as a shooter and scorer. He is also a good defender, making him an ideal 3 and D wing player.

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The Cavaliers have missed Ty Jerome. While Lonzo Ball has worked hard to come back from serious injuries, they have taken too much of a toll. Christian Anderson has been a revelation for Texas Tech as a sophomore. He is small and may struggle to hold up for 30 minutes a game, but has Bones Hyland ability as a scorer and distributor, and could be a solid change of pace backup.

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The Nuggets ability to not only tread water without Nikola Jokic, but post a winning record, was precisely the reason they made the Michael Porter Jr. trade. Four key players, including Peyton Watson, will be free agents after the season. With so few draft picks in upcoming years, this is an important selection for Denver. The Nuggets could use a long term backup for Jokic, especially one who can rebound and block shots. Flory Bidunga could do just that. He is not much of a shooter, but is athletic and does the dirty work on the boards and defensively.

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The Pistons are a fantastic team, but could use additional shooting. As soon as I added Tyler Tanner to my mock, the formerly undefeated Vanderbilt Commodores lost three games in a row. Still, Tanner can shoot, score, slash and lead an offense. If he was three inches and 20 pounds heavier, he would be a lottery lock. Players his size have a very small track record of success in today’s NBA, but at the very end of the first round, there is not much downside for Detroit.

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The Washington Wizards round out the first round, and could draft whatever freshman falls through the cracks. Neoklis Avdalas has the type of game that scouts dream about, thanks to his ability to initiate an offense and score at 6’9. He has a long way to go as far as efficiency goes, however, and his game may not be conductive to winning, at least right away. There could be a Franz Wagner in there somewhere, but it will take time and development.

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